[OPLINLIST] Article with implications for future children's services in some urban areas

Thu, 24 Mar 2005 10:08:26 -0500

This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand
this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.

------_=_NextPart_001_01C53082.9714C697
Content-Type: text/plain

An interesting article with implications for future children's services in
some urban areas.

Jimmie

Jimmie Epling, Regional Librarian

FIVCO/Big Sandy Regional Office

Kentucky Department for Libraries and Archives

P.O. Box 370, 122 South Main Cross St. 

Louisa, KY 41230-0370

V: 606.638.4797  F:606.638.0586

jimmie.epling@ky.gov <mailto:jimmie.epling@ky.gov> 

Vibrant Cities Find One Thing Missing: Children (Officials say that the very
things that attract people who revitalize a city - dense vertical housing,
fashionable restaurants and shops and mass transit that makes a car
unnecessary - are driving out children by making the neighborhoods too
expensive for young families. The problem is not just that American women
are having fewer children, reflected in the lowest birth rate ever recorded
in the country, or children are leaving for private schools. It is that new
people attracted to the city tend to have higher incomes, having already
raised a family; are retiring; or are single and unlikely to have children.
Between 2003 and 2004, only six states had an increase in their elementary
school population, the census bureau reported in March. The United States is
following Europe and the rest of the industrial world, where birthrates now
rarely exceed the rate needed to replace the population. Only immigration to
the United States keeps the replacement rate above Europe's. )

New York Times. Mar. 24, 2005

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/24/national/24childless.html?hp
<http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/24/national/24childless.html?hp&ex=111172680
0&en=ea31131d13e7ab71&ei=5094&partner=homepage>
&ex=1111726800&en=ea31131d13e7ab71&ei=5094&partner=homepage

The Pearl District in the heart of this perpetually self-improving city
seems to have everything in new urban design and comfort, from the Whole
Foods store where fresh-buffed bell peppers are displayed like runway models
to the converted lofts that face sidewalk gardens.

            Crime is down. New homes and businesses are sprouting
everywhere. But in what may be Portland's trendiest and fastest-growing
neighborhood, the number of school-age children grew by only three between
the census counts in 1990 and 2000, according to demographers at Portland
State University.

            "The neighborhood would love to have more kids, that's probably
the top of our wish list," said Joan Pendergast of the Pearl Neighborhood
Association. "We don't want to be a one-dimensional place."

            It is a problem unlike the urban woes of cities like Detroit and
Baltimore, where families have fled decaying neighborhoods, business areas
and schools. Portland is one of the nation's top draws for the kind of
educated, self-starting urbanites that midsize cities are competing to
attract. But as these cities are remodeled to match the tastes of people
living well in neighborhoods that were nearly abandoned a generation ago,
they are struggling to hold on to enough children to keep schools running
and parks alive with young voices.

            San Francisco, where the median house price is now about
$700,000, had the lowest percentage of people under 18 of any large city in
the nation, 14.5 percent, compared with 25.7 percent nationwide, the 2000
census reported. Seattle, where there are more dogs than children, was a
close second. Boston, Honolulu, Portland, Miami, Denver, Minneapolis, Austin
and Atlanta, all considered, healthy, vibrant urban areas, were not far
behind. The problem is not just that American women are having fewer
children, reflected in the lowest birth rate ever recorded in the country.

            Officials say that the very things that attract people who
revitalize a city - dense vertical housing, fashionable restaurants and
shops and mass transit that makes a car unnecessary - are driving out
children by making the neighborhoods too expensive for young families.

            Other cities have tried and failed to curb family flight. In
Portland, the new mayor, Tom Potter, says demography does not have to be
destiny. He has dedicated his term to trying to keep children in the city.

            Every child a city loses, on average, can mean a loss of about
$5,000 for the school district, officials say. Children also create a
constituency for parks, trails and public safety improvements, Mr. Potter
said, and their parents tend to favor upgrading those amenities through
higher taxes. He has been bringing children in to speak to the City Council
and has pushed for incentives for affordable housing with enough bedrooms to
accommodate bigger families.

            A former police chief who helped pioneer community patrolling,
Mayor Potter has 14 grandchildren and says a city's health should be
measured by its youngest citizens. "We can't let Portland become a
retirement city or a city without neighborhood schools," he said.

            New York and Los Angeles, because of their large immigrant
populations, have maintained their base of children, but demographers,
pointing to falling birth rates among Latinos and other ethnic groups, say
the nation's biggest cities may soon follow the others.

            In Portland, the trends are not in Mayor Potter's favor. From
1990 to 2003 the city added more than 90,000 people, growing to an estimated
529,121 residents, but Portland is now educating the fewest students in more
than 80 years.

            The problem is not that children are leaving for private
schools, officials said. It is that new people attracted to the city tend to
have higher incomes, having already raised a family; are retiring; or are
single and unlikely to have children.

            After interviewing 300 parents who had left the city,
researchers at Portland State found that high housing costs and a desire for
space were the top reasons.

Tina Ray lived in Portland for 12 years before moving to Gresham, where her
9-year-old daughter attends school. Her family left for a bigger house and
more space, she said. "It's kid friendly, with a great sense of community,
and lots of sports leagues," she said.

            Many Portland families are relocating to the newest edge
suburbs, where housing prices are cheapest, including Clark County across
the Columbia River in Washington, Portland State demographers say.

            After a drop of 10,000 students in the last decade, Portland
officials called in March for the closing of six schools, prompting cries of
grief from three generations of adults who say that nothing takes the heart
out of a neighborhood like a shuttered school.

            The pool of school-age children is shrinking so fast that
Portland will have to close the equivalent of three or four elementary
schools a year over the next decade, according to school district
projections.

            "I don't think we're going to become a nearly childless city
like San Francisco, but the age structure is really changing," said Barry
Edmonston, an urban studies professor at Portland State, who does
demographic projections for the school district. "People are not turning
over the houses like they used to. They're aging in place, at the same time
that prices are really going up, making it hard for young families to move
into the city."

            Nationally, the birthrate has been dropping while the overall
population is aging as life expectancy increases. The problem is not just in
cities. New figures released this month showed North Dakota losing more
children than any other state.

            Scottsdale, Ariz., a fast-growing Phoenix suburb, lost 571
students last year. San Jose closed three schools last year and expects to
close three more soon.

            Between 2003 and 2004, only six states had an increase in their
elementary school population, the census bureau reported in March.

            In that sense, the United States is following Europe and the
rest of the industrial world, where birthrates now rarely exceed the rate
needed to replace the population.

            "If you took immigrants out of the equation, the United States
would be like the rest of Europe," said Phillip Longman, a senior fellow at
the New America Foundation, a public policy research organization in
Washington. He is the author of "The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birth Rates
Threaten World Prosperity and What To Do About It."

            Mr. Longman said a decline in children not only takes away
"human capital" needed to sustain an aging population, but "having fewer
children really diminishes the quality of life in a city."

            Most city leaders seem to agree. Even in San Francisco, where
officials are preparing for another round of school closings amid a
projected decline of 4,000 students in the next five years, city officials
are aggressively marketing the city and its schools to young families.

            But what they cannot do, especially after the failure last year
of a ballot measure sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce to encourage
affordable housing, is bring housing prices down.

            "It's a real challenge trying to raise a kid in San Francisco,"
said Jim Armstrong, a father of two who is active in Little League in the
city and rents a home. "It takes a degree of fortitude for a parent to stay
with the city."

            Other cities that have tried to reverse the family outflow have
had mixed success. As mayor of Seattle for 12 years, until 1990, Charles
Royer started an initiative called KidsPlace, which has been widely copied
by other cities. It included marketing the city's neighborhoods to young
families, building a small mix of affordable housing, and zoning and
policing changes to make urban parks more child-friendly.

            Mr. Royer said he was ridiculed for signs placed around town
proclaiming "Seattle is a KidsPlace" and took criticism from social service
agencies who thought bringing in more families would only place more demands
on the limited money they had. Mr. Royer said he was bucking historic
changes, and Seattle now has some of the nation's highest-priced real estate
and its lowest percentage of children.

            "I said things like, 'We don't want to be like San Francisco,'
but in the end, I don't think we were terribly effective at stemming that
tide," Mr. Royer said. "It's not so much a social problem as it is a
demographic and financial problem."

            Here in Portland, the city is bemoaning the demographic cycle as
it unfolds before their eyes. On the day of the announcement to close Kenton
Elementary School, which has anchored a north Portland neighborhood for 91
years, some parents and residents reacted as if there had been a death in
the family.

            "I feel heartbroken," said Mary Krogh, who had planned to enroll
her 4-year-old son, Chase, in the school. "It's just a terrible loss."

            The school and a tightknit community were among the things that
attracted Ms. Krogh and her husband to the neighborhood seven years ago, she
said.

            But now the school will be shuttered, and improvements from
Portland's beloved light rail line have contributed to rising real estate
prices, defeating the broad goals of the mayor's effort to bring and keep
young families in the city.

            "Portland is a great city that attracts a lot of educated
people," she said. "But the real estate is becoming outrageously expensive.
And then you get wealthy singles and wealthy retirees. What's missing are
kids. And that feels really sterile to me."

------_=_NextPart_001_01C53082.9714C697
Content-Type: text/html

<html>

<head>
<META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=us-ascii">

<meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 10 (filtered)">

<style>
<!--
 /* Font Definitions */
 @font-face
	{font-family:Wingdings;
	panose-1:5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0;}
@font-face
	{font-family:"Arial \(W1\)";
	panose-1:0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0;}
 /* Style Definitions */
 p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
	{margin:0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Times New Roman";}
p.MsoEnvelopeAddress, li.MsoEnvelopeAddress, div.MsoEnvelopeAddress
	{margin-top:0in;
	margin-right:0in;
	margin-bottom:0in;
	margin-left:2.0in;
	margin-bottom:.0001pt;
	font-size:12.0pt;
	font-family:"Arial \(W1\)";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
	{color:blue;
	text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
	{color:purple;
	text-decoration:underline;}
span.EmailStyle19
	{font-family:Arial;
	color:windowtext;
	font-weight:normal;
	font-style:normal;
	text-decoration:none none;}
@page Section1
	{size:8.5in 11.0in;
	margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.Section1
	{page:Section1;}
 /* List Definitions */
 ol
	{margin-bottom:0in;}
ul
	{margin-bottom:0in;}
-->
</style>

</head>

<body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple>

<div class=Section1>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>An interesting article with implications for future children's
services in some urban areas.</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
 font-family:Arial'>Jim</span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:
Arial'>mie</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Jim</span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:
 Arial'>mie Epling</span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>,
Regional Librarian</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>FIVCO/Big Sandy Regional Office</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Kentucky Department&nbsp;for Libraries and Archives</span></font></p>

P.O. Box 370, 122 South Main Cross St.&nbsp;

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Louisa</span></font><font face=Arial><span
 style='font-family:Arial'>, </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>KY</span></font><font face=Arial><span
 style='font-family:Arial'> </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>41230-0370</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>V: 606.638.4797&nbsp; F:606.638.0586</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><a href="mailto:jimmie.epling@ky.gov">jimmie.epling@ky.gov</a></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>&nbsp;</span></font></b></p>

Vibrant Cities Find One Thing Missing:
Children (Officials
say that the very things that attract people who revitalize a city - dense
vertical housing, fashionable restaurants and shops and mass transit that makes
a car unnecessary - are driving out children by making the neighborhoods too
expensive for young families. The problem is not just that American women are
having fewer children, reflected in the lowest birth rate ever recorded in the
country, or children are leaving for private schools. It is that new people
attracted to the city tend to have higher incomes, having already raised a
family; are retiring; or are single and unlikely to have children. Between 2003
and 2004, only six states had an increase in their elementary school
population, the census bureau reported in March. The United States is following Europe and the rest of the industrial
world, where birthrates now rarely exceed the rate needed to replace the
population. Only immigration to the United States keeps the replacement rate above Europe's. )

New York Times. Mar. 24, 2005

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/24/national/24childless.html?hp&amp;ex=1111726800&amp;en=ea31131d13e7ab71&amp;ei=5094&amp;partner=homepage">http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/24/national/24childless.html?hp&amp;ex=1111726800&amp;en=ea31131d13e7ab71&amp;ei=5094&amp;partner=homepage</a></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:.5in'><font size=3 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The Pearl District in the heart of
this perpetually self-improving city seems to have everything in new urban
design and comfort, from the Whole Foods store where fresh-buffed bell peppers
are displayed like runway models to the converted lofts that face sidewalk
gardens.</span></font></p>

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Crime is down. New homes and businesses are
sprouting everywhere. But in what may be Portland's trendiest and fastest-growing neighborhood, the
number of school-age children grew by only three between the census counts in
1990 and 2000, according to demographers at Portland State University.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;The neighborhood would love to have more
kids, that's probably the top of our wish list,&quot; said Joan Pendergast of
the Pearl Neighborhood Association. &quot;We don't want to be a one-dimensional
place.&quot;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; It is a problem unlike the urban woes of cities
like Detroit and Baltimore, where families have fled decaying neighborhoods,
business areas and schools. Portland is one of the nation's top draws for the kind of
educated, self-starting urbanites that midsize cities are competing to attract.
But as these cities are remodeled to match the tastes of people living well in
neighborhoods that were nearly abandoned a generation ago, they are struggling
to hold on to enough children to keep schools running and parks alive with
young voices.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; San Francisco, where the median house price is
now about $700,000, had the lowest percentage of people under 18 of any large
city in the nation, 14.5 percent, compared with 25.7 percent nationwide, the
2000 census reported. Seattle,
where there are more dogs than children, was a close second. Boston, Honolulu, Portland, Miami, Denver, Minneapolis, Austin and Atlanta, all considered, healthy, vibrant urban areas, were
not far behind. The problem is not just that American women are having fewer
children, reflected in the lowest birth rate ever recorded in the country.

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Officials say that the very things that attract
people who revitalize a city - dense vertical housing, fashionable restaurants
and shops and mass transit that makes a car unnecessary - are driving out
children by making the neighborhoods too expensive for young families.</span></font></p>

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Other cities have tried and failed to curb
family flight. In Portland, the new mayor, Tom Potter, says
demography does not have to be destiny. He has dedicated his term to trying to
keep children in the city.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Every child a city loses, on average, can mean a
loss of about $5,000 for the school district, officials say. Children also
create a constituency for parks, trails and public safety improvements, Mr.
Potter said, and their parents tend to favor upgrading those amenities through
higher taxes. He has been bringing children in to speak to the City Council and
has pushed for incentives for affordable housing with enough bedrooms to
accommodate bigger families.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A former police chief who helped pioneer
community patrolling, Mayor Potter has 14 grandchildren and says a city's
health should be measured by its youngest citizens. &quot;We can't let Portland become a retirement city or a city
without neighborhood schools,&quot; he said.

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>New York</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'> and </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>Los Angeles</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'>, because of their large immigrant populations, have
maintained their base of children, but demographers, pointing to falling birth
rates among Latinos and other ethnic groups, say the nation's biggest cities
may soon follow the others.</span></font></p>

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; In Portland, the trends are not in Mayor Potter's favor. From 1990
to 2003 the city added more than 90,000 people, growing to an estimated 529,121
residents, but Portland is now educating the fewest
students in more than 80 years.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The problem is not that children are leaving for
private schools, officials said. It is that new people attracted to the city
tend to have higher incomes, having already raised a family; are retiring; or
are single and unlikely to have children.

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; After interviewing 300 parents who had left the
city, researchers at </span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:
  Arial'>Portland</span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>
 </span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>State</span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'> found that high housing costs and a
desire for space were the top reasons.</span></font></p>

Tina Ray lived in Portland
for 12 years before moving to Gresham, where her 9-year-old daughter attends school. Her
family left for a bigger house and more space, she said. &quot;It's kid
friendly, with a great sense of community, and lots of sports leagues,&quot; she
said.

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Many </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>Portland</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'> families are relocating to the newest edge suburbs,
where housing prices are cheapest, including </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>Clark</span></font><font face=Arial><span
 style='font-family:Arial'> </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>County</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'> across the </span></font><font face=Arial><span
 style='font-family:Arial'>Columbia River</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'> in </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>Washington</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'>, </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>Portland</span></font><font face=Arial><span
 style='font-family:Arial'> </span></font><font face=Arial><span
  style='font-family:Arial'>State</span></font><font face=Arial><span
style='font-family:Arial'> demographers say.</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; After a drop of 10,000 students in the last decade,
</span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>Portland</span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'> officials called in March for the
closing of six schools, prompting cries of grief from three generations of
adults who say that nothing takes the heart out of a neighborhood like a
shuttered school.</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The pool of school-age children is shrinking so
fast that </span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>Portland</span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'> will have to close the equivalent
of three or four elementary schools a year over the next decade, according to
school district projections.</span></font></p>

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;I don't think we're going to become a
nearly childless city like San Francisco, but the age structure is really changing,&quot;
said Barry Edmonston, an urban studies professor at Portland State, who does demographic projections for the school
district. &quot;People are not turning over the houses like they used to.
They're aging in place, at the same time that prices are really going up,
making it hard for young families to move into the city.&quot;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Nationally, the birthrate has been dropping
while the overall population is aging as life expectancy increases. The problem
is not just in cities. New figures released this month showed North Dakota losing more children than any other
state.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Scottsdale, Ariz., a fast-growing Phoenix suburb, lost 571 students last year. San Jose closed three schools last year and
expects to close three more soon.

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Between 2003 and 2004, only six states had an
increase in their elementary school population, the census bureau reported in
March.</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; In that sense, the </span></font><font
  face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>United States</span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'> is following </span></font><font
 face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>Europe</span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'> and the rest of the industrial
world, where birthrates now rarely exceed the rate needed to replace the
population.</span></font></p>

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;If you took immigrants out of the
equation, the United
 States would
be like the rest of Europe,&quot;
said Phillip Longman, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, a public
policy research organization in Washington. He is the author of &quot;The Empty Cradle: How
Falling Birth Rates Threaten World Prosperity and What To Do About It.&quot;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Mr. Longman said a decline in children not only
takes away &quot;human capital&quot; needed to sustain an aging population, but
&quot;having fewer children really diminishes the quality of life in a
city.&quot;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Most city leaders seem to agree. Even in San Francisco, where officials are preparing for
another round of school closings amid a projected decline of 4,000 students in
the next five years, city officials are aggressively marketing the city and its
schools to young families.

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; But what they cannot do, especially after the
failure last year of a ballot measure sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce to
encourage affordable housing, is bring housing prices down.</span></font></p>

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;It's a real challenge trying to raise a
kid in San
 Francisco,&quot;
said Jim Armstrong, a father of two who is
active in Little League in the city and rents a home. &quot;It takes a degree
of fortitude for a parent to stay with the city.&quot;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Other cities that have tried to reverse the
family outflow have had mixed success. As mayor of Seattle for 12 years, until 1990, Charles
Royer started an initiative called KidsPlace, which has been widely copied by
other cities. It included marketing the city's neighborhoods to young families,
building a small mix of affordable housing, and zoning and policing changes to
make urban parks more child-friendly.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Mr. Royer said he was ridiculed for signs placed
around town proclaiming &quot;Seattle is a KidsPlace&quot; and took criticism from social
service agencies who thought bringing in more families would only place more
demands on the limited money they had. Mr. Royer said he was bucking historic
changes, and Seattle now has some of the nation's
highest-priced real estate and its lowest percentage of children.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;I said things like, 'We don't want to be
like San
 Francisco,'
but in the end, I don't think we were terribly effective at stemming that
tide,&quot; Mr. Royer said. &quot;It's not so much a social problem as it is a
demographic and financial problem.&quot;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Here in Portland, the city is bemoaning the demographic cycle as it
unfolds before their eyes. On the day of the announcement to close Kenton Elementary School, which has anchored a north Portland neighborhood for 91 years, some
parents and residents reacted as if there had been a death in the family.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;I feel heartbroken,&quot; said Mary Krogh,
who had planned to enroll her 4-year-old son, Chase, in the school. &quot;It's
just a terrible loss.&quot;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The school and a tightknit community were among
the things that attracted Ms. Krogh and her husband to the neighborhood seven
years ago, she said.

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; But now the school will be shuttered, and
improvements from </span></font><font face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>Portland</span></font><font
face=Arial><span style='font-family:Arial'>'s beloved light rail line have
contributed to rising real estate prices, defeating the broad goals of the
mayor's effort to bring and keep young families in the city.</span></font></p>

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &quot;Portland is a great city that attracts a lot of educated
people,&quot; she said. &quot;But the real estate is becoming outrageously
expensive. And then you get wealthy singles and wealthy retirees. What's
missing are kids. And that feels really sterile to me.&quot;

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>&nbsp;</span></font></p>

</div>

</body>

</html>

------_=_NextPart_001_01C53082.9714C697--