[OPLIN 4cast] OPLIN 4Cast #312: Throwing It All Away

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OPLIN 4Cast

OPLIN 4Cast #312: Throwing It All Away
December 12th, 2012

trash can'Tis the season for predictions, and technology journalists are 
among the most prolific predictors of all. You can hardly open a 
technology news website without seeing an article about the ten (or 
twenty, or thirty) "top technology trends" to watch for in 2013. One of 
these futurist predictions caught our eye recently, because we had not 
already seen it on ten (or twenty, or thirty) other websites: companies 
will embrace "disposable technology." The prediction is that more and 
more often, the best (only?) way to upgrade business technology will be 
to replace it.

  * Disposable computers become the trend for Apple
    <http://www.gottabemobile.com/2012/10/25/disposable-computers-become-the-trend-for-apple/>
    (GottaBeMobile/Chuong Nguyen) "The idea for 'disposable computing'
    where users shed their old devices and get new ones stem from
    Apple's success in mobile. In the iPod era, the only way to get a
    larger capacity iPod was to buy a new one as you outgrew the storage
    of the current model. iPod devices were sleek and did not come with
    replaceable batteries nor removable memory cards. In the age of the
    iPhone, Apple created an even tighter ecosystem where you'd have to
    not only buy your apps through the singular gatekeeper-the App
    Store-but all components were sealed and not upgradeable."
  * The 'sealed-box' Mac: Cutting-edge design or planned obsolescence?
    <http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9230209/The_sealed_box_Mac_Cutting_edge_design_or_planned_obsolescence_>
    (Computerworld/Richard Hoffman) "Max it out, or be prepared to
    replace the whole thing sooner rather than later. Compared to the
    old strategy of buying only what you need and upgrading later, this
    will increase both the short-term cost of the computer and the
    overall cost. That's because RAM and storage upgrades purchased
    later when components have generally dropped in price, will need to
    be bought now, when they are more expensive (and must be bought
    directly from a single vendor, Apple, instead of whomever has the
    best component prices)."
  * How disposable is your technology?
    <http://www.infoworld.com/d/adventures-in-it/how-disposable-your-technology-471>
    (InfoWorld/Christina Wood) "Even as we complain about the planned
    obsolescence of equipment we've spent a fortune on, we covet the
    next cool thing - an Android phone, a superthin laptop with the new
    i7 processor, 3-D HDTVs, Google TV. We live in amazing times, and
    older technology often falls victim to our own desire to swim in
    these times."
  * Outlook 2013 <http://www.informationweek.com/gogreen/121012/>
    (InformationWeek/Michael Healey) [registration required] "It's an
    accepted principle with devices; IT shops know that a PC or laptop
    really isn't functional after three years. The lifespan of tablets
    is likely to be two years. And now this disposable approach is
    coming to software, with apps that company employees might use for a
    while, then lose interest in and dump."

*/Fiscal fact:/*

As companies change attitudes about the lifespan of technology, they 
will also need to make some bookkeeping changes. The /InformationWeek/ 
article cited above recommends depreciating the cost of PCs in three 
years, not five; tablets in one year, not three; and cloud apps in three 
years, not seven.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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